Labor on the brink as new bombshell poll reveals 200 seat loss | Policy

Nigel Farage’s Reform Party would take 67 seats from Labor if a general election were held today, a super poll has suggested.

Britons heading to the polls now would see Sir Keir StarmerLabor lost 200 seats – just five months after July’s general election.

The analysis, carried out by the More in Common think tank, suggested that Labor would win 228 seats conservative 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two.

Labour’s default national vote share is 25%. conservative with 26%, reform with 21% t, Lib Dems with 14%, Greens with 8%, SNP on 2% and other parties on 3%.

Seven ministers would lose their seats, six of them to reform, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting would lose his constituency to an independent candidate.

In the 2024 general election, the Labor Party won 411 seats in a landslide victory.

But since then, announcing £40bn of tax rises, he has cut back fuel payment in winterlaunched an inheritance tax raid on farmers, tried to bring the UK closer to the EU and reneged on promises to compensate WASPI women.

Luke Tryl, chief executive of More in Common UK, said: “With four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election. Instead, it confirms that the fragmentation of British politics we saw at the July election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.

“The first-past-the-post system struggles to cope with this degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats in a three-way tie, and many won by exceptionally small shares of the vote. There is no doubt that many voters found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s projected vote share would drop significantly if an election were held tomorrow.

“While the new government is still in its infancy, it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly.”

The analysis is based on voting intention data collected between 31 October and 16 December from 11,024 UK adults.