Josh Allen-Lamar Jackson NFL MVP race much tighter than once thought

Lamar Jackson entered the chat.

After the star quarterback delivered another memorable and stunning performance on national television, the NFL The MVP race is now believed to be much tighter than previously thought — and that provides value for Week 17 bets.

Josh Allen remains the MVP betting favorite, but his odds have dropped to -200 DraftKings. The Bills quarterback was about -900 two weeks ago.

Josh Allen is pictured during the Bills' win over the Patriots on Dec. 22. — Josh Allen breaks out of the pocket during the Bills’ Week 16 win over the Patriots. Images Images

Jackson’s three touchdowns over Christmas and the previous week catapulted him back into serious consideration, dropping his odds to +145. The reigning MVP leads the league in QBR and has 39 touchdown passes with just four interceptions, along with 852 rushing yards and four TDs.

Voter fatigue usually prevents a back-to-back award winner, but if the season is this incredible, then he can overcome that resistance. After all, Aaron Rodgers just pulled it off in 2020 and 2021.

That’s why I think Buffalo’s matchup with the Jets presents a favorable opportunity. Allen is +105 odds to throw at least two touchdown passes against a defense that has recently been torched by Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leaves the field after an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024, in Houston. — A smiling Lamar Jackson walks off the field after the Ravens’ Week 17 win over the Texans. A?

Allen should thrive, especially since he tends to excel in adverse conditions. The weather forecast predicts constant rain, but quite warm temperatures.

The MVP story is what makes prop betting a solid game. I think Allen’s chances hinge on that performance, especially since Allen will likely skip next week’s regular season finale. If he fails against the Jets, that will likely influence Jackson’s award.

Do you bet on the NFL?

I think the underlying narrative will influence the game in the red zone, especially if the Bills have a comfortable lead. He can always run for a score, and those odds are -115 and separated by passing touchdowns. However, I think he’s more likely to be given the green light to find the end zone through the air.

The Bills want to win the game and secure the second seed in the AFC. This is undoubtedly the main priority. But they also want their franchise cornerstone to win the MVP, and they’ll make certain decisions to accomplish both. That’s why I see +105 odds as value and a much better bet than -200 on an MVP ticket.