Nations gather for critical climate talks in shadow of US election

Paris, France:

World leaders begin UN climate change talks next week, days after a US election that could send shockwaves through global efforts to limit dangerous warming.

The stakes are high for the COP29 conference in Azerbaijan, where nations must agree on a new goal to fund climate action across huge swathes of the world.

It comes in what will be the hottest year in human history, which has already seen a wave of devastating floods, heat waves and storms in all corners of the globe.

Nations are falling far short of what is needed to prevent warming from reaching even more dangerous levels in the future.

But the leaders arriving in Baku face a range of challenges, including trade disputes, economic uncertainty and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Adding to the uncertainty, the US vote and the potential return of Donald Trump, who has pulled out of the Paris Agreement and called climate change a “scam”, could affect the negotiations and more.

“You can imagine that if Trump is elected and if the outcome of the election is clear by the time we get to Baku, then there will be a kind of crisis moment,” said Li Shuo, an expert on climate diplomacy in Washington. Asia Society Institute of Politics.

He said countries including China were preparing to send a “clear message” in support of global cooperation on climate change if Trump beats rival Kamala Harris to the White House.

The UN talks are seen as key to laying the groundwork for a major new round of climate change commitments due early next year.

The current commitments would push the world past the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius of temperature rise since pre-industrial times.

“Decisions in Baku could profoundly shape the climate trajectory and whether 1.5 degrees remains within reach,” said Cosima Cassel of think tank E3G.

Clash for cash

Azerbaijan, which is hosting the talks from November 11-22, has raised concerns about its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and its human rights record.

Countries pledged last year to transition away from fossil fuels and triple the use of renewables by 2030.

This year, negotiators must raise a target of $100 billion a year to help poorer nations prepare for worsening climate impacts and phase out coal, oil and gas.

The total value of this new lens, where it comes from, and who has access are major points of contention.

UN-commissioned experts estimate that developing countries, excluding China, will need to spend $2.4 trillion a year by 2030 on climate priorities.

Of this, $1 trillion must come from international public and private finance.

Existing wealthy donors, including the EU and the US, said new sources of money would have to be found, including from China and the oil-rich Gulf states.

China – today the world’s biggest polluter and second largest economy – is paying for climate finance, but on its own terms.

Between 2013 and 2022, China paid an average of $4.5 billion a year to other developing countries, the World Resources Institute said in a September article.

Money could also be raised through pollution charges, a wealth tax or ending fossil fuel subsidies, among other ideas.

Rachel Cleetus, policy director of the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said Azerbaijan’s negotiators should aim for a $1 trillion deal.

This money “is not charity”, Cleetus told AFP, adding that it should come mainly in the form of aid or very low-interest loans to avoid adding to developing countries’ debts.

“Finance might sound like a technical issue, but we all know it’s about money,” she told AFP.

“Nations either make those investments upfront, or we’re going to pay dearly for it after the fact, in the costs of disasters, in the costs of pollution. So this is a fork in the road. We have a choice.”

Green power

Current climate commitments, even if fully implemented, would set the world on a path to 2.6C warming by the end of the century — threatening catastrophe for human societies and ecosystems, the UN Environment Program has said .

A deal in Baku is seen as crucial to underpinning a set of more ambitious national commitments in the coming months.

Li said those future commitments could be affected by the US vote, with countries including China waiting to see the outcome before finalizing longer-term goals.

Beyond Baku, there is also an “increasing interconnection between the climate and the economic agenda”, he said, including trade battles between China and the US and Europe.

He said progress is most visible in the “green economy, which is winning the race when it comes to solar, wind, electric vehicles and energy storage”.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)